Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on November 5?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 5

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$174.93

Combined PnL

-$8.19

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$168.09

Total Shares169

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.84

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$8.34

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.4¢	$103.73	$100.71	+$0.08	77% 12555-3711 (16266)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$30.88	$30.95	+$0.07	47% 2146-2441 (4587)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$16.02	$16.03	+$0.01	40% 1051-1581 (2632)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$7.88	$7.9	+$0.02	39% 1092-1680 (2772)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.04	$5.01	-$0.03	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.81	$4.83	+$0.02	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$5.11	$4.78	-$0.33	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.68	$2.66	-$0.02	41% 1185-1677 (2862)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$90.19	$1.4	-$6.8	41% 799-1129 (1928)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.34	$0.34	+$0	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$1.54	$0.32	-$1.22	20% 2590-10277 (12867)

Lucerys

Invested

$103.73

Value

$100.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

77%

12555-3711 (16266)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$30.88

Value

$30.95

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2146-2441 (4587)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$16.02

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

1051-1581 (2632)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.88

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

1092-1680 (2772)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.11

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.33

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.68

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

1185-1677 (2862)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.19

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$6.8

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$1.22

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.