Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 2?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 2

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$102.03

Combined PnL

$22.8

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$49.8

Total Shares287

Combined PnL+$4.33

No6 traders

Total Value$52.23

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$18.48

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$40.37	$46.24	+$5.87	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$9.66	$18.1	+$8.44	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 44¢	$6.75	$12.43	+$5.68	38% 680-1090 (1770)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 67¢	$10.05	$9.45	-$0.6	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 44.6¢	$4.02	$7.31	+$3.29	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.26	$4.16	+$1.9	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.86	$1.86	+$1.01	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$4.5	$1.7	-$2.55	58% 1611-1157 (2768)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 81¢	$1.01	$0.79	-$0.22	56% 3732-2932 (6664)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.37

Value

$46.24

PnL

+$5.87

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$18.1

PnL

+$8.44

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$5.68

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$0.6

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$7.31

PnL

+$3.29

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$1.9

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$1.01

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

1611-1157 (2768)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$0.22

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.