Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 1?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $709 held · ends Nov 1

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$709.38

Combined PnL

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$39.24

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$2

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$439.89	$444.32	+$5.23	20% 317-1301 (1618)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.6¢	$268.48	$270.08	+$1.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.2¢	$170.58	$174.24	+$3.66
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 35.5¢	$94.43	$104.73	+$10.3	47% 674-749 (1423)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.5¢	$65.74	$70.33	+$4.59
└ No leg	Noavg 51.7¢	$28.69	$34.4	+$5.71
RO rocky42019ARB<$100	Yesavg 38.4¢	$144.37	$66.71	+$17.07	42% 1717-2340 (4057)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.4¢	$32.18	$41.46	+$10.09
└ No leg	Noavg 55.5¢	$27.74	$25.25	+$6.98
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$58.18	$54.38	-$3.8	59% 1820-1267 (3087)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$38.7	$32.68	-$6.45
└ No leg	Noavg 54.4¢	$19.05	$21.7	+$2.65
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$25.3	$28.01	+$2.71	50% 1841-1816 (3657)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$16.14	$11.22	-$0.71	57% 13799-10572 (24371)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$439.89

Value

$444.32

PnL

+$5.23

Record

20%

317-1301 (1618)

Both legs:

No$268.4861.6¢+$1.58

Yes$170.5839.2¢+$3.66

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.43

Value

$104.73

PnL

+$10.3

Record

47%

674-749 (1423)

Both legs:

Invested

$144.37

Value

$66.71

PnL

+$17.07

Record

42%

1717-2340 (4057)

Both legs:

Yes$32.1838.4¢+$10.09

No$27.7455.5¢+$6.98

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.18

Value

$54.38

PnL

-$3.8

Record

59%

1820-1267 (3087)

Both legs:

Yes$38.745¢-$6.45

No$19.0554.4¢+$2.65

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$25.3

Value

$28.01

PnL

+$2.71

Record

50%

1841-1816 (3657)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.14

Value

$11.22

PnL

-$0.71

Record

57%

13799-10572 (24371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.