Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 30?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $18 held · ends Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$18.34

Combined PnL

-$2.28

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.05

Total Shares671

Combined PnL-$3.41

No1 trader

Total Value$5.29

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$1.13

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7	$6.4	-$0.6	18% 525-2348 (2873)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$5.79	$5.29	+$1.13	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$9.16	$3.35	-$5.81	59% 1714-1183 (2897)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.3	$3.3	+$3	53% 6459-5657 (12116)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

18%

525-2348 (2873)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.79

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$1.13

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.16

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$5.81

Record

59%

1714-1183 (2897)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

6459-5657 (12116)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6048.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

6148.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.