Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 31?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 33¢ · $956 held · ends Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$956.24

Combined PnL

$0.04

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 32.5¢

-17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$589.68

Total Shares1,568

Combined PnL-$20.63

No4 traders

Total Value$366.56

Total Shares547

Combined PnL+$20.67

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$506.49	$485.86	-$20.63	47% 653-731 (1384)
24 241532532432	Noavg 58.8¢	$205.26	$216.42	+$11.16	59% 1748-1211 (2959)
Istaroth	Noavg 60¢	$130.03	$138.35	+$9.13	21% 305-1161 (1466)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$103.82	$103.82	+$0	56% 378-300 (678)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 76¢	$9.5	$8.19	-$1.31	53% 6490-5699 (12189)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57¢	$15.58	$3.6	+$1.69	57% 13613-10430 (24043)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$506.49

Value

$485.86

PnL

-$20.63

Record

47%

653-731 (1384)

241532532432

Invested

$205.26

Value

$216.42

PnL

+$11.16

Record

59%

1748-1211 (2959)

Istaroth

Invested

$130.03

Value

$138.35

PnL

+$9.13

Record

21%

305-1161 (1466)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.82

Value

$103.82

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

378-300 (678)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$1.31

Record

53%

6490-5699 (12189)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.58

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.69

Record

57%

13613-10430 (24043)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.