Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 5?

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 99¢ · $892 held · ends Nov 5

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$892.48

Combined PnL

$322.93

Smart Money Entry

19.7¢ → 98.7¢

+401% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 18 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$705.47

Total Shares1,479

Combined PnL+$404.48

No14 traders

Total Value$89.79

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$81.55

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 18.8¢	$1.4K	$621.94	+$362.68	41% 825-1210 (2035)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$103.71	$97.22	-$6.5	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.7¢	$82.17	$64.44	-$17.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.3¢	$21.54	$32.77	+$11.23
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 40.3¢	$14.28	$31.44	+$17.15	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$31.66	$26.45	-$5.21	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$23.34	$26.11	+$2.76	55% 4491-3700 (8191)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$24.11	$25.99	+$21.88	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 90¢	$65.89	$13.15	+$0	14% 508-3080 (3588)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 26.8¢	$19.85	$12.98	-$6.87	47% 2253-2525 (4778)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$48.75	$12.61	+$4.08	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 30.9¢	$22.56	$11.73	-$10.84	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 15.4¢	$6.31	$5.32	-$0.99	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$8.1	$3.17	-$4.93	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$4.57	$1.6	-$2.97	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$40.25	$0.97	-$39.28	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$9.99	$0.73	-$9.25	76% 13050-4194 (17244)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 18.8¢	$1.91	$0.61	-$1.3	42% 1221-1710 (2931)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 20.2¢	$3.06	$0.23	-$2.84	35% 18775-34811 (53586)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 34.9¢	$5.53	$0.15	-$0.9	53% 8421-7496 (15917)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.36	$0.1	-$0.26	41% 2318-3356 (5674)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$1,382.08

Value

$621.94

PnL

+$362.68

Record

41%

825-1210 (2035)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$103.71

Value

$97.22

PnL

-$6.5

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

Both legs:

No$82.1772.7¢-$17.73

Yes$21.5428.3¢+$11.23

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$31.44

PnL

+$17.15

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$31.66

Value

$26.45

PnL

-$5.21

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.34

Value

$26.11

PnL

+$2.76

Record

55%

4491-3700 (8191)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.11

Value

$25.99

PnL

+$21.88

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$65.89

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$6.87

Record

47%

2253-2525 (4778)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$48.75

Value

$12.61

PnL

+$4.08

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$22.56

Value

$11.73

PnL

-$10.84

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$0.99

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$4.93

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$2.97

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$40.25

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$39.28

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$9.25

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$1.3

Record

42%

1221-1710 (2931)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$2.84

Record

35%

18775-34811 (53586)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$5.53

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

8421-7496 (15917)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.26

Record

41%

2318-3356 (5674)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 18 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.