Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$60.24
-$7.07
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $33.69 | $34.65 | +$0.96 | 58% 20160-14785 (34945) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $24.48 | $16.99 | -$7.49 | 53% 3929-3484 (7413) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $7.54 | $7.6 | +$0.06 | 49% 752-789 (1541) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.6 | $1 | -$0.6 | 20% 2639-10442 (13081) |
Invested
$33.69
Value
$34.65
PnL
+$0.96
Record
58%
20160-14785 (34945)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$16.99
PnL
-$7.49
Record
53%
3929-3484 (7413)
Invested
$7.54
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
752-789 (1541)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.6
Record
20%
2639-10442 (13081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.