Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 4?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 0.2¢ · $346 held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$346.3

Combined PnL

$138.02

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 0.2¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$318.79

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$255.12

No10 traders

Total Value$26.69

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$117.1

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 14.5¢	$43.37	$298.75	+$255.38	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 98.4¢	$20.3	$20.04	-$0.26	14% 461-2750 (3211)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$37	$11.35	-$25.65	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$49.06	$9.6	-$12.44	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 33.7¢	$9.88	$3.32	-$6.56	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$1.56	$1.8	+$0.24	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$1.34	$0.26	-$1.08	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$39.84	$0.13	-$36.9	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 19.6¢	$8.46	$0.09	-$8.38	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$8.1	$0.08	-$8.02	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$9.56	$0.04	-$9.52	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$8.83	$0.03	-$8.8	54% 10027-8667 (18694)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$43.37

Value

$298.75

PnL

+$255.38

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$20.04

PnL

-$0.26

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$37

Value

$11.35

PnL

-$25.65

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$49.06

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$12.44

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$6.56

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.24

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$1.08

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$39.84

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$36.9

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$8.46

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.38

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$8.02

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$9.56

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$9.52

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$8.83

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.8

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.