Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 4?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $740 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$739.75

Combined PnL

-$82.59

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$714.23

Total Shares708

Combined PnL+$89.02

Yes6 traders

Total Value$25.53

Total Shares655

Combined PnL-$171.61

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 67.4¢	$355.6	$292.32	+$11	15% 459-2699 (3158)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 94.7¢	$111.31	$115.15	+$3.85	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$76.13	$86.69	+$10.55	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$59.2	$83.78	+$26.46	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$32.16	$37.79	+$5.62	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$17.44	$27.09	+$9.65	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$19.25	$24.47	+$8.43	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$15.77	$19.6	+$3.83	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$11.74	$11.38	-$37.84	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$14.33	$10.69	+$2.86	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$5.39	$9.96	+$4.57	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$42.08	$5.49	-$21.6	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$403.06	$5.2	-$108.11	42% 799-1116 (1915)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$3.21	$4.9	+$1.69	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$15.01	$1.98	+$0.81	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 70¢	$1.28	$1.8	+$0.51	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.1¢	$4.78	$1.12	-$3.66	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$1.57	$0.36	-$1.21	58% 6492-4654 (11146)

Istaroth

Invested

$355.6

Value

$292.32

PnL

+$11

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$111.31

Value

$115.15

PnL

+$3.85

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$76.13

Value

$86.69

PnL

+$10.55

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$59.2

Value

$83.78

PnL

+$26.46

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$32.16

Value

$37.79

PnL

+$5.62

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.44

Value

$27.09

PnL

+$9.65

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$24.47

PnL

+$8.43

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.77

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$3.83

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.74

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$37.84

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.33

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$2.86

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$4.57

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.08

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$21.6

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$403.06

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$108.11

Record

42%

799-1116 (1915)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$1.69

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.01

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.81

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.51

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.78

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$3.66

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.21

Record

58%

6492-4654 (11146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.