Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 4?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
No 67%
$708.45
-$102.79
Smart Money Signal
16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 67.4¢ | $355.6 | $278.31 | -$3.01 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 94.7¢ | $111.31 | $117.5 | +$6.2 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $76.13 | $88.45 | +$12.32 | 53% 29258-26174 (55432) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $58.83 | $85.1 | +$28.15 | 54% 10037-8676 (18713) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $32.16 | $38.56 | +$6.4 | 32% 2522-5398 (7920) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $17.44 | $27.64 | +$10.2 | 55% 4411-3608 (8019) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $19.25 | $24.97 | +$8.93 | 77% 12539-3686 (16225) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $15.77 | $20 | +$4.23 | 39% 1087-1679 (2766) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $14.33 | $10.91 | +$3.08 | 53% 8228-7325 (15553) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $5.39 | $10.16 | +$4.77 | 40% 2177-3221 (5398) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $403.06 | — | -$113.31 | 41% 799-1129 (1928) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $3.21 | $5 | +$1.79 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $1.28 | $1.83 | +$0.55 | 27% 6849-18792 (25641) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $15.01 | — | -$1.17 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $11.76 | — | -$38.85 | 39% 1055-1660 (2715) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $42.08 | — | -$27.08 | 58% 2493-1822 (4315) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $4.78 | — | -$4.78 | 47% 2141-2439 (4580) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $1.22 | — | -$1.22 | 58% 6502-4666 (11168) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 64.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 39% 5666-8726 (14392) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 51% 3690-3541 (7231) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 1050-1578 (2628) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $18.06 | — | +$0 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 41% 1183-1676 (2859) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 1690-1872 (3562) |
IstarothInvested
$355.6
Value
$278.31
PnL
-$3.01
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Invested
$111.31
Value
$117.5
PnL
+$6.2
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
balthazar<$100Invested
$76.13
Value
$88.45
PnL
+$12.32
Record
53%
29258-26174 (55432)
Invested
$58.83
Value
$85.1
PnL
+$28.15
Record
54%
10037-8676 (18713)
Invested
$32.16
Value
$38.56
PnL
+$6.4
Record
32%
2522-5398 (7920)
Invested
$17.44
Value
$27.64
PnL
+$10.2
Record
55%
4411-3608 (8019)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.25
Value
$24.97
PnL
+$8.93
Record
77%
12539-3686 (16225)
Invested
$15.77
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.23
Record
39%
1087-1679 (2766)
Invested
$14.33
Value
$10.91
PnL
+$3.08
Record
53%
8228-7325 (15553)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$10.16
PnL
+$4.77
Record
40%
2177-3221 (5398)
Invested
$403.06
Value
—
PnL
-$113.31
Record
41%
799-1129 (1928)
Invested
$3.21
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.79
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.55
Record
27%
6849-18792 (25641)
Invested
$15.01
Value
—
PnL
-$1.17
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
Invested
$11.76
Value
—
PnL
-$38.85
Record
39%
1055-1660 (2715)
Invested
$42.08
Value
—
PnL
-$27.08
Record
58%
2493-1822 (4315)
Invested
$4.78
Value
—
PnL
-$4.78
Record
47%
2141-2439 (4580)
Invested
$1.22
Value
—
PnL
-$1.22
Record
58%
6502-4666 (11168)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
5666-8726 (14392)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3690-3541 (7231)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1050-1578 (2628)
Invested
$18.06
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1183-1676 (2859)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1690-1872 (3562)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Istaroth
No — $278.31
qwen300.fund
No — $117.5
balthazar
No — $88.45
Poligarch
No — $85.1
luciebot
No — $38.56
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $27.64
Lucerys
No — $24.97
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $20
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
No — $10.91
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $10.16