Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 6?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 53¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$150.11
-$1.54
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $141.66 | $70.11 | +$0 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53¢ | $37.16 | $36.46 | -$0.7 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $32.95 | $33.65 | +$0.7 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $101.7 | $48.82 | -$4.18 | 41% 825-1210 (2035) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $9.25 | $10.8 | +$1.55 | 53% 23096-20320 (43416) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $8.25 | $8.52 | +$0.27 | 54% 10281-8887 (19168) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $7.71 | $7.9 | +$0.19 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $2.13 | $2.49 | +$0.36 | 39% 5787-9021 (14808) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $1.18 | $1.45 | +$0.27 | 61% 15003-9455 (24458) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$141.66
Value
$70.11
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.7
Value
$48.82
PnL
-$4.18
Record
41%
825-1210 (2035)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$1.55
Record
53%
23096-20320 (43416)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$8.52
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
10281-8887 (19168)
Invested
$7.71
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$2.49
PnL
+$0.36
Record
39%
5787-9021 (14808)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.27
Record
61%
15003-9455 (24458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.