Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 8?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 82¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$141.9
-$4.64
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $53.38 | $55.58 | +$2.19 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $45.1 | $37.17 | -$2.71 | 70% 14146-6050 (20196) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $26.85 | $24.6 | -$2.25 | 58% 15883-11562 (27445) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $13.34 | $12.23 | -$1.12 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $28.52 | $7.92 | -$0.6 | 19% 2967-12558 (15525) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.4 | -$0.15 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$53.38
Value
$55.58
PnL
+$2.19
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.1
Value
$37.17
PnL
-$2.71
Record
70%
14146-6050 (20196)
Invested
$26.85
Value
$24.6
PnL
-$2.25
Record
58%
15883-11562 (27445)
Invested
$13.34
Value
$12.23
PnL
-$1.12
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$28.52
Value
$7.92
PnL
-$0.6
Record
19%
2967-12558 (15525)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.