Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 5?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 51¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$162.74
-$6.88
53.2¢ → 50.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $94.77 | $87.44 | -$7.33 | 53% 29258-26174 (55432) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $33.67 | $34.51 | +$0.84 | 54% 10037-8676 (18713) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $21.03 | $20.29 | -$0.74 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 46.9¢ | $8 | $8.35 | +$0.36 | 77% 12539-3686 (16225) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $5.52 | $4.9 | -$0.62 | 50% 659-658 (1317) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.7 | $2.7 | +$1 | 44% 797-1006 (1803) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $2.56 | $2.63 | +$0.06 | 58% 2493-1822 (4315) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $27.4 | $1.9 | -$0.46 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$94.77
Value
$87.44
PnL
-$7.33
Record
53%
29258-26174 (55432)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$34.51
PnL
+$0.84
Record
54%
10037-8676 (18713)
Invested
$21.03
Value
$20.29
PnL
-$0.74
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8
Value
$8.35
PnL
+$0.36
Record
77%
12539-3686 (16225)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.62
Record
50%
659-658 (1317)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$1
Record
44%
797-1006 (1803)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
2493-1822 (4315)
Invested
$27.4
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.46
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.