Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 6?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $24 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$24.41
-$0.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $22.13 | $15.61 | -$2.13 | 13% 532-3506 (4038) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $18.98 | $4.65 | -$0.2 | 53% 8588-7658 (16246) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $14.87 | $4.16 | +$1.57 | 58% 21279-15443 (36722) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.