Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 7?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $185 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$185.14
$50.79
96.2¢ → 98.8¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $63.22 | $62.51 | -$0.71 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $4.4 | $56.23 | +$51.83 | 38% 887-1421 (2308) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $38.87 | $39.42 | +$0.55 | 53% 12756-11431 (24187) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $19.58 | $18.8 | -$0.78 | 53% 24340-21400 (45740) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $6.12 | $6.05 | -$0.06 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $7.18 | $2.13 | -$0.03 | 39% 1298-2033 (3331) |
Invested
$63.22
Value
$62.51
PnL
-$0.71
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$56.23
PnL
+$51.83
Record
38%
887-1421 (2308)
Invested
$38.87
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$0.55
Record
53%
12756-11431 (24187)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$0.78
Record
53%
24340-21400 (45740)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$0.06
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$7.18
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.03
Record
39%
1298-2033 (3331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.