Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by November 13?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$108.23

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 82.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,831

Combined PnL-$13.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$517.03

Total Shares3,041

Combined PnL+$121.9

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 84.6¢	$691.37	$678.2	-$13.17	— 8-6 (14)
Lolakis	Noavg 85.4¢	$1.4K	$672.75	-$19.85	18% 7-32 (39)
TY TyatsmrCTR	Yesavg 14.1¢	$283.9	$341.43	+$57.53	— 4-0 (4)
paddaa	Noavg 84.7¢	$638.14	$211.4	+$15.45	60% 503-336 (839)
winforretire	Noavg 82¢	$200	$198.78	-$1.22	— 0-1 (1)
CarARB<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$212	$178.25	+$10.25	68% 1403-647 (2050)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.3¢	$122.86	$135	+$7
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$40	$43.25	+$3.25
PB pbshineCTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$111.23	$175.6	+$64.38	— 5-8 (13)
GD Gdub	Noavg 86¢	$172	$173	+$1	— 3-7 (10)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 84¢	$168	$172	+$4	8% 4-44 (48)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 83¢	$175.89	$122.86	-$6.93	36% 19-34 (53)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.6¢	$107.99	$113.54	+$5.55	40% 3363-5001 (8364)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 89¢	$44.49	$45.99	+$1.5	46% 140-167 (307)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$691.37

Value

$678.2

PnL

-$13.17

Record

—

8-6 (14)

Lolakis

Invested

$1,366.65

Value

$672.75

PnL

-$19.85

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

TyatsmrCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.9

Value

$341.43

PnL

+$57.53

Record

—

4-0 (4)

paddaa

Invested

$638.14

Value

$211.4

PnL

+$15.45

Record

60%

503-336 (839)

winforretire

Invested

$200

Value

$198.78

PnL

-$1.22

Record

—

0-1 (1)

CarARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$212

Value

$178.25

PnL

+$10.25

Record

68%

1403-647 (2050)

Both legs:

Invested

$111.23

Value

$175.6

PnL

+$64.38

Record

—

5-8 (13)

Gdub

Invested

$172

Value

$173

PnL

+$1

Record

—

3-7 (10)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$168

Value

$172

PnL

+$4

Record

4-44 (48)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$175.89

Value

$122.86

PnL

-$6.93

Record

36%

19-34 (53)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$107.99

Value

$113.54

PnL

+$5.55

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$44.49

Value

$45.99

PnL

+$1.5

Record

46%

140-167 (307)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.