Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 50¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

-$61

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 49.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares22,364

Combined PnL+$108.94

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,004

Combined PnL-$169.94

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 44¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$443.35	48% 405-446 (851)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$226.79	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 44¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$325.7	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$122.47	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 50.7¢	$936.53	$956.54	+$20.01	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$753.57	$750.23	-$3.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.9¢	$182.96	$206.31	+$23.35
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54.8¢	$685.5	$631.76	-$53.75	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$592	$598	+$6	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$392	$396	+$4
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$224	$202	+$2
NM NM-P	Overavg 51¢	$419.39	$415.28	-$4.11	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Overavg 51¢	$419.39	$415.28	-$4.11	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 56¢	$336	$363	+$27	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$148.26	$149.28	+$1.03	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 56¢	$121.52	$109.59	-$11.93	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$35.88	$34.65	-$1.23	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 54.6¢	$40.59	$23.27	-$0.56	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$4,335

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$443.35

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$2,832.22

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$226.79

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$2,603.84

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$325.7

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,278.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$122.47

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$936.53

Value

$956.54

PnL

+$20.01

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Over$753.5750.7¢-$3.35

Under$182.9643.9¢+$23.35

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$685.5

Value

$631.76

PnL

-$53.75

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$592

Value

$598

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Both legs:

Invested

$419.39

Value

$415.28

PnL

-$4.11

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$419.39

Value

$415.28

PnL

-$4.11

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$336

Value

$363

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$148.26

Value

$149.28

PnL

+$1.03

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$121.52

Value

$109.59

PnL

-$11.93

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.88

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$1.23

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$40.59

Value

$23.27

PnL

-$0.56

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.