Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 1.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $44K held · ended Nov 7

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.2K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 50¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares35,721

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Under7 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares36,051

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 37.7¢	$12.0K	$15.7K	+$3.7K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
CH chongchong37	Underavg 51¢	$11.3K	$11.1K	-$216.64	52% 148-139 (287)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 76.6¢	$9.1K	$6.0K	$-3.2K	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
RN1	Overavg 46.2¢	$4.4K	$5.0K	+$585.73	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$3.6K	$4.6K	+$926.4	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.4¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$75.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 23.9¢	$915.21	$1.9K	+$1.0K
VE Venusian	Underavg 15.1¢	$145.78	$483.71	+$337.93	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 72.9¢	$683.96	$367.21	-$189.11	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72.9¢	$307.92	$211.16	-$208.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.2¢	$128.5	$156.05	+$19.23
LI Limousin	Underavg 15.7¢	$67.4	$214.24	+$146.84	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
AN Anon455	Overavg 58.9¢	$219.48	$186.44	-$33.05	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 18.2¢	$58.69	$160.9	+$102.21	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 81¢	$318.36	$144.85	-$59.29	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Over leg	Overavg 81¢	$120.56	$74.38	-$65.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.7¢	$65.86	$70.47	+$6.65
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 100¢	$279.67	$98.39	-$181.28	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 22¢	$39.41	$89.65	+$50.24	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SL SlickRick123	Overavg 76¢	$129.96	$85.5	-$44.46	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 10¢	$12.29	$61.7	+$49.42	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 56¢	$10	$8.93	-$1.07	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 41¢	$5.39	$6.57	+$1.18	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$11,973.9

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

chongchong37

Under

Invested

$11,271.61

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$216.64

Record

52%

148-139 (287)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$9,134.84

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

RN1

Over

Invested

$4,432.16

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$585.73

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,638.59

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$926.4

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Over$2,723.3851.4¢-$75.93

Under$915.2123.9¢+$1.0K

Venusian

Under

Invested

$145.78

Value

$483.71

PnL

+$337.93

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$683.96

Value

$367.21

PnL

-$189.11

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$307.9272.9¢-$208.34

Under$128.541.2¢+$19.23

Limousin

Under

Invested

$67.4

Value

$214.24

PnL

+$146.84

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$219.48

Value

$186.44

PnL

-$33.05

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$58.69

Value

$160.9

PnL

+$102.21

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$318.36

Value

$144.85

PnL

-$59.29

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Over$120.5681¢-$65.95

Under$65.8646.7¢+$6.65

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$279.67

Value

$98.39

PnL

-$181.28

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$39.41

Value

$89.65

PnL

+$50.24

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

SlickRick123

Over

Invested

$129.96

Value

$85.5

PnL

-$44.46

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$12.29

Value

$61.7

PnL

+$49.42

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$1.07

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$5.39

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$1.18

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.