Le Mans FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 62¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

-$520.13

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 61.5¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares26,041

Combined PnL-$336.31

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,405

Combined PnL-$183.82

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 50¢	$12.7K	$12.4K	-$382	48% 405-446 (851)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$165.92	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$121.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.5¢	$824.83	$780.64	-$44.19
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$135.43	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
RN1CTR	Underavg 53¢	$455.84	$407.45	-$48.4	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 43.3¢	$212.98	$262.69	+$49.71	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 41¢	$200.43	$255.05	+$54.62	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.7¢	$97.93	$138.8	+$40.87
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$102.5	$116.25	+$13.75
AR ARocky33ARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$127.2	$90.8	-$36.4	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$95.25	$53.9	-$41.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.2¢	$31.95	$36.9	+$4.95
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 60.2¢	$50.25	$46.71	-$3.54	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50¢	$15.5	$15.04	-$0.46	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$12,733.47

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$382

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,392.48

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$165.92

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Under$2,567.6448.8¢-$121.72

Over$824.8356.5¢-$44.19

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$2,722.59

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$135.43

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$455.84

Value

$407.45

PnL

-$48.4

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$212.98

Value

$262.69

PnL

+$49.71

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200.43

Value

$255.05

PnL

+$54.62

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Over$97.9337.7¢+$40.87

Under$102.541¢+$13.75

ARocky33ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$127.2

Value

$90.8

PnL

-$36.4

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

Both legs:

Under$95.2568¢-$41.35

Over$31.9553.2¢+$4.95

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$50.25

Value

$46.71

PnL

-$3.54

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.