Angers SCO vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$304.8

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,404

Combined PnL+$510.01

Over6 traders

Total Value$345.1

Total Shares3,835

Combined PnL-$205.22

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 93¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$222.61	73% 3335-1228 (4563)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 72.3¢	$301.83	$417.31	+$115.49	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 38.4¢	$181.24	$329.82	+$239.76	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0xheavy888	Underavg 67¢	$284.81	$218.92	-$65.89	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 33¢	$405.09	$196.47	+$62.79	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$70.1	$59.72	-$10.39	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
RN1CTR	Overavg 7¢	$253.59	$51.52	-$202.06	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$47.84	$22.01	+$2.01	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 73.4¢	$19.71	$18.65	-$1.06	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$71.1	$13.08	-$58.02	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 67¢	$5	$2.7	-$0.65	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
AR ARocky33<$100	Underavg 57¢	$5	$2.6	-$0.25	76% 4861-1510 (6371)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$5	$2.3	+$0.45	71% 18400-7571 (25971)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,978.87

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$222.61

Record

73%

3335-1228 (4563)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$301.83

Value

$417.31

PnL

+$115.49

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$181.24

Value

$329.82

PnL

+$239.76

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$284.81

Value

$218.92

PnL

-$65.89

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$405.09

Value

$196.47

PnL

+$62.79

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.1

Value

$59.72

PnL

-$10.39

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$253.59

Value

$51.52

PnL

-$202.06

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.84

Value

$22.01

PnL

+$2.01

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$19.71

Value

$18.65

PnL

-$1.06

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.1

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$58.02

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.65

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

ARocky33<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.25

Record

76%

4861-1510 (6371)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.