Angers SCO vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 78¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 77.5¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares13,817

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over6 traders

Total Value$405.56

Total Shares1,685

Combined PnL-$276.65

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 69.7¢	$7.5K	$8.2K	+$735.72	73% 3335-1228 (4563)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 32.5¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$447.03	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.5¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$658.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$430.06	$641.36	+$211.29
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42.7¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$757.47	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 20¢	$563.84	$595.21	+$31.37	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20¢	$384	$307.2	-$76.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.5¢	$179.84	$288.01	+$108.17
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$424.98	$210.89	-$214.09	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 23¢	$193.64	$200.77	+$7.12	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.3¢	$82.81	$123.65	+$40.84
└ Over leg	Overavg 23¢	$110.84	$77.12	-$33.72
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 43¢	$168.04	$101.61	-$66.43	49% 507-531 (1038)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$88.18	$63.93	+$15.43	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
AR ARocky33	Underavg 42.1¢	$141.8	$44.36	-$17.09	76% 4861-1510 (6371)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 42¢	$105	$40	-$65	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$37.26	$37	-$0.26	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 29.2¢	$59.07	$36.48	-$0.8	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 27.1¢	$29.2	$17.26	-$11.94	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 27¢	$12.11	$3.15	-$0.12	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.93	$2.37	-$1.56	56% 8592-6809 (15401)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$7,487.22

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$735.72

Record

73%

3335-1228 (4563)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,816.64

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$447.03

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Over$2,386.5732.5¢-$658.32

Under$430.0651.3¢+$211.29

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,323.14

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$757.47

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$563.84

Value

$595.21

PnL

+$31.37

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Over$38420¢-$76.8

Under$179.8452.5¢+$108.17

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$424.98

Value

$210.89

PnL

-$214.09

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$193.64

Value

$200.77

PnL

+$7.12

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Under$82.8156.3¢+$40.84

Over$110.8423¢-$33.72

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$168.04

Value

$101.61

PnL

-$66.43

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.18

Value

$63.93

PnL

+$15.43

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

ARocky33

Under

Invested

$141.8

Value

$44.36

PnL

-$17.09

Record

76%

4861-1510 (6371)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$105

Value

$40

PnL

-$65

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.26

Value

$37

PnL

-$0.26

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.07

Value

$36.48

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.2

Value

$17.26

PnL

-$11.94

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$12.11

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$3.93

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$1.56

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.