Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will United Arab Emirates vs. Honduras end in a draw?
Resolved No. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
No 39%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$44.36
Smart Money Signal
7 of 18 top traders (39%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 88.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$91.42 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
IC ic4cream | Noavg 73¢ | $448.22 | $614 | +$165.78 | 5% 24-459 (483) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $251.6 | $115.78 | -$135.82 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $83.36 | $115.78 | +$32.42 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $168.24 | — | -$168.24 | |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $117.36 | $94.48 | -$22.88 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71¢ | $67.08 | $94.48 | +$27.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $50.28 | — | -$50.28 | |
NO NotJumpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $37.81 | — | -$37.81 | 53% 634-568 (1202) |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $62 | $86.11 | +$24.11 | 8% 27-316 (343) |
PE pelik<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $80 | +$0.08 | 99% 1441-4 (1445) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $37.84 | $52.79 | +$14.95 | 50% 2262-2219 (4481) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $28.64 | — | -$28.64 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $24.65 | $21 | +$1.24 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $31.98 | — | -$31.98 | 48% 425-457 (882) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $31.42 | — | -$31.42 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $10.32 | — | -$10.32 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $9.63 | — | -$7.78 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $5.67 | — | -$5.67 | 47% 786-902 (1688) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $5 | +$1.75 | 35% 11-20 (31) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $3.01 | — | -$3.01 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $1.99 | — | -$1.99 | 20% 47-184 (231) |
GU guilttripCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 57% 13-10 (23) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $0.48 | — | -$0.48 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
Invested
$1,646.31
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$91.42
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$448.22
Value
$614
PnL
+$165.78
Record
5%
24-459 (483)
Invested
$251.6
Value
$115.78
PnL
-$135.82
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.36
Value
$94.48
PnL
-$22.88
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.81
Value
—
PnL
-$37.81
Record
53%
634-568 (1202)
Invested
$62
Value
$86.11
PnL
+$24.11
Record
8%
27-316 (343)
Invested
$79.92
Value
$80
PnL
+$0.08
Record
99%
1441-4 (1445)
Invested
$37.84
Value
$52.79
PnL
+$14.95
Record
50%
2262-2219 (4481)
Invested
$28.64
Value
—
PnL
-$28.64
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$24.65
Value
$21
PnL
+$1.24
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
Invested
$31.98
Value
—
PnL
-$31.98
Record
48%
425-457 (882)
Invested
$31.42
Value
—
PnL
-$31.42
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$10.32
Value
—
PnL
-$10.32
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$9.63
Value
—
PnL
-$7.78
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.67
Value
—
PnL
-$5.67
Record
47%
786-902 (1688)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.75
Record
35%
11-20 (31)
Invested
$3.01
Value
—
PnL
-$3.01
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$1.99
Value
—
PnL
-$1.99
Record
20%
47-184 (231)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
57%
13-10 (23)
Invested
$0.48
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
No — $1.6K
ic4cream
No — $614
Limousin
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Venusian
ARBArbitrage — excluded
NotJump
CTRYes — $0
spyGoodLuck77
No — $86.11
pelik
No — $80
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
No — $52.79
MadridTime
CTRYes — $0
ferdinand2
No — $21