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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Ecuador vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5

Resolved Under. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

18

Over 41%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 18 top traders (39%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%
Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders
Total Value$1.9K
Total Shares1,879
Combined PnL+$582.11
Over7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares8,136
Combined PnL$-3.7K
Under — 61%Over — 39%
GO
GoalLineGhost
Under

Invested

$441.53

Value

$700.92

PnL

+$259.39

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

FL
FlaznorpCTR
Over

Invested

$1,391.7

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

SU
suitcase6628
Under

Invested

$250.6

Value

$390

PnL

+$139.4

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

dips.
Under

Invested

$183.72

Value

$268.23

PnL

+$84.52

Record

47%

877-973 (1850)

XT
xtxpleasecallme
Under

Invested

$188.15

Value

$188.34

PnL

+$0.19

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

poshposh<$100
Under

Invested

$76.43

Value

$95.34

PnL

+$18.91

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

SM
smithagent<$100
Under

Invested

$50.27

Value

$71

PnL

+$20.73

Record

44%

600-749 (1349)

VeryLucky888CTR
Over

Invested

$134.63

Value

—

PnL

-$83.07

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

VE
Venusian<$100
Under

Invested

$23.47

Value

$48.9

PnL

+$25.43

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

LR
lryyy<$100
Under

Invested

$35.64

Value

$43.46

PnL

+$7.82

Record

45%

712-885 (1597)

Secondhandvinyl<$100
Under

Invested

$33.6

Value

$40

PnL

+$6.4

Record

74%

207-71 (278)

UE
uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR
Over

Invested

$1,427.4

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

64%

47-26 (73)

LI
Limousin<$100
Under

Invested

$14.37

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$18.29

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

RN1CTR
Over

Invested

$623.33

Value

—

PnL

-$623.33

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

MU
Multicoloured-SerfCTR
Over

Invested

$116.05

Value

—

PnL

-$116.05

Record

49%

615-643 (1258)

NO
NotJumpCTR<$100
Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

—

PnL

-$8.8

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100
Over

Invested

$2.65

Value

—

PnL

-$2.65

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100
Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

—

PnL

+$1.04

Record

82%

648-144 (792)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x1581a3d7...c96922
Slug
fif-ecu-cri-2026-11-13-total-2pt5

Traders in this Market

GO

GoalLineGhost

Under — $700.92

+$259.39
FL

Flaznorp

CTR

Over — $0

$-1.4K
SU

suitcase6628

Under — $390

+$139.4

dips.

Under — $268.23

+$84.52
XT

xtxpleasecallme

Under — $188.34

+$0.19

poshposh

Under — $95.34

+$18.91
SM

smithagent

Under — $71

+$20.73

VeryLucky888

CTR

Over — $0

-$83.07
VE

Venusian

Under — $48.9

+$25.43
LR

lryyy

Under — $43.46

+$7.82
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