Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colombia, while the market favors Chile (60%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Colombia (63%) · Colombia at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Colombia
8
Colombia 63%
$2.1K
-$8.95
41.4¢ → 40.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralColombia at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Chile 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Colombia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Colombiaavg 41.7¢ | $743.54 | $732.13 | -$11.41 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
DA DanielsDixon | Chileavg 59¢ | $590 | $595 | +$5 | 8% 5-58 (63) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Colombiaavg 41.5¢ | $433.36 | $428.46 | -$4.9 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Colombiaavg 40.8¢ | $252.5 | $251.64 | +$1.19 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Colombiaavg 41¢ | $56.06 | $56.06 | -$0 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Chileavg 59¢ | $28.11 | $28.17 | +$0.06 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Chileavg 57¢ | $26.5 | $27.67 | +$1.16 | 49% 611-642 (1253) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Colombiaavg 41.1¢ | $22 | $21.94 | -$0.05 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
Invested
$743.54
Value
$732.13
PnL
-$11.41
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$590
Value
$595
PnL
+$5
Record
8%
5-58 (63)
Invested
$433.36
Value
$428.46
PnL
-$4.9
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$252.5
Value
$251.64
PnL
+$1.19
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$56.06
Value
$56.06
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$28.11
Value
$28.17
PnL
+$0.06
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$1.16
Record
49%
611-642 (1253)
Invested
$22
Value
$21.94
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.