FAA outage attributed to Iran?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 98¢ · $76K held · ends Dec 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

Total Value

$75.9K

Combined PnL

$51.92

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 98.3¢

+1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$75.9K

Total Shares77,220

Combined PnL+$180.91

Yes5 traders

Total Value$65.54

Total Shares5,913

Combined PnL-$128.99

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 97.2¢	$65.4K	$64.7K	+$51.44	— 8-7 (15)
Car	Noavg 97.8¢	$3.5K	$2.2K	+$80.24	68% 1406-649 (2055)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 97.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$9.71	2% 5-277 (282)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Noavg 98.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$12.58	61% 1027-652 (1679)
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$26	64% 304-172 (476)
ifyouloveme	Noavg 96.3¢	$935.38	$949.97	+$14.6	53% 280-250 (530)
IN insidero	Noavg 97.1¢	$614.38	$619.07	+$4.7	5% 2-40 (42)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 97.4¢	$519.16	$521.29	+$2.13	22% 11-38 (49)
Haradwaith	Noavg 98¢	$947.94	$197.22	+$3.74	31% 146-327 (473)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 97.7¢	$613.98	$160.73	-$1.41	10% 15-130 (145)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802	Noavg 98¢	$137.2	$138.46	+$1.26	— 5-0 (5)
Slowroasted	Noavg 97.1¢	$116.52	$117.36	+$0.84	— 2-0 (2)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$133.54	$38.7	-$94.85	27% 8-22 (30)
GR grothCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$37.25	$11.99	-$25.26	10% 5-47 (52)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$18.4	$11.55	-$6.85	13% 76-495 (571)
realbengvir<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.89	+$0.24	— 1-18 (19)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$181.3	$2.6	-$1.75	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$5.37	$0.7	-$0.28	53% 1556-1404 (2960)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$65,369.1

Value

$64.7K

PnL

+$51.44

Record

—

8-7 (15)

Car

Invested

$3,484.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$80.24

Record

68%

1406-649 (2055)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$2,150.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$9.71

Record

5-277 (282)

PacersThreeandahalf

Invested

$2,165.13

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$12.58

Record

61%

1027-652 (1679)

DonaldinhoTrumpito

Invested

$1,930

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$26

Record

64%

304-172 (476)

ifyouloveme

Invested

$935.38

Value

$949.97

PnL

+$14.6

Record

53%

280-250 (530)

insidero

Invested

$614.38

Value

$619.07

PnL

+$4.7

Record

2-40 (42)

cocococococo

Invested

$519.16

Value

$521.29

PnL

+$2.13

Record

22%

11-38 (49)

Haradwaith

Invested

$947.94

Value

$197.22

PnL

+$3.74

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

WarriorH

Invested

$613.98

Value

$160.73

PnL

-$1.41

Record

10%

15-130 (145)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802

Invested

$137.2

Value

$138.46

PnL

+$1.26

Record

—

5-0 (5)

Slowroasted

Invested

$116.52

Value

$117.36

PnL

+$0.84

Record

—

2-0 (2)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.54

Value

$38.7

PnL

-$94.85

Record

27%

8-22 (30)

grothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.25

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$25.26

Record

10%

5-47 (52)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$11.55

PnL

-$6.85

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

realbengvir<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.24

Record

—

1-18 (19)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.3

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$1.75

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.37

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.