FAA outage attributed to hack?

19 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 96¢ · $17K held · ends Dec 1

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$120.36

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 96.4¢

+5% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 24 top traders (79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares17,315

Combined PnL+$489.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$329.64

Total Shares9,216

Combined PnL-$368.98

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 94.9¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$46.4	— 8-7 (15)
AV aviato	Noavg 95.3¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$35.26	— 10-0 (10)
vinii	Noavg 90.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$164	88% 21-3 (24)
StarMaster	Noavg 88.9¢	$889.04	$950	+$60.96	— 6-5 (11)
clazzy1	Noavg 84.1¢	$840.99	$949.99	+$109	7% 3-43 (46)
DO dogerfad	Noavg 82¢	$774	$729	-$45	— 2-2 (4)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Noavg 95¢	$1.1K	$686.68	-$138.59	— 7-6 (13)
IN insidero	Noavg 90.6¢	$1.3K	$659.77	+$68.99	5% 2-40 (42)
Slowroasted	Noavg 95.5¢	$560.39	$565.44	+$5.05	— 2-0 (2)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Noavg 93¢	$502.19	$512.99	+$10.8	61% 1027-652 (1679)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 96¢	$505.08	$505.61	+$0.53	2% 5-277 (282)
NO NotJump	Noavg 92.2¢	$463.85	$439.72	-$9.61	53% 750-669 (1419)
Sardinianshepherd	Noavg 82¢	$273.74	$317.14	+$43.4	4% 3-65 (68)
ifyouloveme	Noavg 90¢	$200	$211.11	+$11.11	53% 280-250 (530)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$300.92	$148.56	-$136.11	27% 8-22 (30)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$400	$135.51	-$264.49	60% 503-336 (839)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 95.1¢	$123.92	$125.26	+$1.34	41% 28-40 (68)
Car	Noavg 92¢	$5.0K	$105.72	+$124.82	68% 1406-649 (2055)
yen4u<$100	Noavg 94¢	$94	$95	+$1	42% 25-34 (59)
Dr.mett<$100	Noavg 95¢	$72.07	$73.09	+$1.02	— 11-2 (13)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$16.1	$25.15	+$9.05	13% 76-495 (571)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$435.18	$10.4	+$18.57	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$363.98	$10.02	+$4	47% 1615-1838 (3453)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 81¢	$83.43	$0.95	-$1.15	10% 15-130 (145)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$3,798.1

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$46.4

Record

—

8-7 (15)

aviato

Invested

$3,162.12

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$35.26

Record

—

10-0 (10)

vinii

Invested

$2,546.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$164

Record

88%

21-3 (24)

StarMaster

Invested

$889.04

Value

$950

PnL

+$60.96

Record

—

6-5 (11)

clazzy1

Invested

$840.99

Value

$949.99

PnL

+$109

Record

3-43 (46)

dogerfad

Invested

$774

Value

$729

PnL

-$45

Record

—

2-2 (4)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Invested

$1,055.61

Value

$686.68

PnL

-$138.59

Record

—

7-6 (13)

insidero

Invested

$1,258.3

Value

$659.77

PnL

+$68.99

Record

2-40 (42)

Slowroasted

Invested

$560.39

Value

$565.44

PnL

+$5.05

Record

—

2-0 (2)

PacersThreeandahalf

Invested

$502.19

Value

$512.99

PnL

+$10.8

Record

61%

1027-652 (1679)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$505.08

Value

$505.61

PnL

+$0.53

Record

5-277 (282)

NotJump

Invested

$463.85

Value

$439.72

PnL

-$9.61

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Sardinianshepherd

Invested

$273.74

Value

$317.14

PnL

+$43.4

Record

3-65 (68)

ifyouloveme

Invested

$200

Value

$211.11

PnL

+$11.11

Record

53%

280-250 (530)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$300.92

Value

$148.56

PnL

-$136.11

Record

27%

8-22 (30)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$135.51

PnL

-$264.49

Record

60%

503-336 (839)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$123.92

Value

$125.26

PnL

+$1.34

Record

41%

28-40 (68)

Car

Invested

$4,957.64

Value

$105.72

PnL

+$124.82

Record

68%

1406-649 (2055)

yen4u<$100

Invested

$94

Value

$95

PnL

+$1

Record

42%

25-34 (59)

Dr.mett<$100

Invested

$72.07

Value

$73.09

PnL

+$1.02

Record

—

11-2 (13)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.1

Value

$25.15

PnL

+$9.05

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$435.18

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$18.57

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$363.98

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$4

Record

47%

1615-1838 (3453)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$83.43

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$1.15

Record

10%

15-130 (145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 24 top traders (79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.