Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (65%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down on November 3?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (43%) · Up at 35¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 43%
$454.27
-$22.76
38.6¢ → 35¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Down 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 196874353278CTR | Upavg 40.1¢ | $138.86 | $117.61 | -$10.88 | 43% 260-343 (603) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61.9¢ | $101.41 | $98.3 | -$3.11 | 55% 51345-41856 (93201) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $81.49 | $74.73 | -$6.75 | 55% 49280-40908 (90188) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.9¢ | $67.48 | $66.8 | -$0.69 | 62% 819-512 (1331) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $40.9 | $41.28 | +$0.37 | 55% 3200-2598 (5798) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $38.8 | $37.63 | -$1.17 | 55% 50696-41121 (91817) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $18.48 | $17.93 | -$0.54 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
Invested
$138.86
Value
$117.61
PnL
-$10.88
Record
43%
260-343 (603)
Invested
$101.41
Value
$98.3
PnL
-$3.11
Record
55%
51345-41856 (93201)
Invested
$81.49
Value
$74.73
PnL
-$6.75
Record
55%
49280-40908 (90188)
Invested
$67.48
Value
$66.8
PnL
-$0.69
Record
62%
819-512 (1331)
Invested
$40.9
Value
$41.28
PnL
+$0.37
Record
55%
3200-2598 (5798)
Invested
$38.8
Value
$37.63
PnL
-$1.17
Record
55%
50696-41121 (91817)
Invested
$18.48
Value
$17.93
PnL
-$0.54
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.