Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (55%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 29%
$3.3K
$282.49
48.6¢ → 45.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$240.73 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
19 196874353278CTR | Upavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$23.46 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Upavg 44.6¢ | $103.1 | $91.29 | -$11.81 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $23.5 | $77.34 | +$10.01 | 55% 48791-40333 (89124) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $48.7 | $57.48 | +$8.78 | 55% 50153-40327 (90480) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $43.34 | $53.33 | +$9.99 | 55% 50878-41468 (92346) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $25.9 | $27.22 | +$1.32 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
Invested
$1,534.17
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$240.73
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$1,189.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$23.46
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$103.1
Value
$91.29
PnL
-$11.81
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$77.34
PnL
+$10.01
Record
55%
48791-40333 (89124)
Invested
$48.7
Value
$57.48
PnL
+$8.78
Record
55%
50153-40327 (90480)
Invested
$43.34
Value
$53.33
PnL
+$9.99
Record
55%
50878-41468 (92346)
Invested
$25.9
Value
$27.22
PnL
+$1.32
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.