Ethereum Up or Down on October 31?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 71¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 29%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$49.84
58.4¢ → 70.5¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 196874353278 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.8K | -$135.19 | 43% 174-229 (403) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 37.9¢ | $891.61 | $986.85 | +$95.23 | 65% 2415-1283 (3698) |
TO Tokor | Upavg 63.2¢ | $250.91 | $230.4 | -$20.51 | 63% 771-446 (1217) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $117.66 | $118.19 | +$0.53 | 55% 48497-40064 (88561) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41¢ | $82 | $84 | +$2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.5¢ | $35.66 | $34.19 | -$1.47 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $93 | $97 | +$4 | 55% 50540-41153 (91693) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.1¢ | $74.75 | $78.63 | +$3.88 | 55% 49768-39993 (89761) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.3¢ | $41.63 | $46.09 | +$4.11 | 59% 871-604 (1475) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.1¢ | $26.51 | $25.15 | -$1.37 | 56% 2860-2289 (5149) |
Invested
$2,291.31
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$135.19
Record
43%
174-229 (403)
Invested
$891.61
Value
$986.85
PnL
+$95.23
Record
65%
2415-1283 (3698)
Invested
$250.91
Value
$230.4
PnL
-$20.51
Record
63%
771-446 (1217)
Invested
$117.66
Value
$118.19
PnL
+$0.53
Record
55%
48497-40064 (88561)
Both legs:
Invested
$93
Value
$97
PnL
+$4
Record
55%
50540-41153 (91693)
Invested
$74.75
Value
$78.63
PnL
+$3.88
Record
55%
49768-39993 (89761)
Invested
$41.63
Value
$46.09
PnL
+$4.11
Record
59%
871-604 (1475)
Invested
$26.51
Value
$25.15
PnL
-$1.37
Record
56%
2860-2289 (5149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.