Ethereum Up or Down on November 1?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (17%) · Up at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 17%
$1.7K
$131.57
Research grade
NeutralUp at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 196874353278 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $961.81 | $1.0K | +$173.19 | 44% 189-244 (433) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR | Downavg 38.9¢ | $363.27 | $313.06 | -$50.2 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 44.6¢ | $72.88 | $95.72 | +$0.74 | 55% 48696-40263 (88959) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $78.42 | $79.06 | +$0.64 | 55% 49959-40175 (90134) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $34.87 | $75.69 | +$5.65 | 55% 50763-41356 (92119) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.5¢ | $48.7 | $50.25 | +$1.54 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
Invested
$961.81
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$173.19
Record
44%
189-244 (433)
Invested
$363.27
Value
$313.06
PnL
-$50.2
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$72.88
Value
$95.72
PnL
+$0.74
Record
55%
48696-40263 (88959)
Invested
$78.42
Value
$79.06
PnL
+$0.64
Record
55%
49959-40175 (90134)
Invested
$34.87
Value
$75.69
PnL
+$5.65
Record
55%
50763-41356 (92119)
Invested
$48.7
Value
$50.25
PnL
+$1.54
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.