Ethereum Up or Down on October 30?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (29%) · Down at 82¢ · $444 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Down
7
Down 29%
$443.86
-$36.43
76.5¢ → 81.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO gobblewobble | Downavg 77.1¢ | $229.24 | $248.19 | +$18.95 | 59% 853-597 (1450) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $99.88 | $47.42 | -$38.96 | 59% 1025-703 (1728) |
 HaileyWelch<$100 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $43.05 | $43.14 | +$0.09 | 54% 243-203 (446) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $31.73 | $30.33 | -$1.4 | 56% 2787-2207 (4994) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.7¢ | $35.02 | $27.09 | -$7.93 | 55% 49534-39749 (89283) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.2¢ | $29.2 | $25.59 | -$3.61 | 55% 48280-39825 (88105) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.7¢ | $25.68 | $22.11 | -$3.57 | 55% 50317-40909 (91226) |
Invested
$229.24
Value
$248.19
PnL
+$18.95
Record
59%
853-597 (1450)
Invested
$99.88
Value
$47.42
PnL
-$38.96
Record
59%
1025-703 (1728)
HaileyWelch<$100Invested
$43.05
Value
$43.14
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
243-203 (446)
Invested
$31.73
Value
$30.33
PnL
-$1.4
Record
56%
2787-2207 (4994)
Invested
$35.02
Value
$27.09
PnL
-$7.93
Record
55%
49534-39749 (89283)
Invested
$29.2
Value
$25.59
PnL
-$3.61
Record
55%
48280-39825 (88105)
Invested
$25.68
Value
$22.11
PnL
-$3.57
Record
55%
50317-40909 (91226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.