Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on November 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$7.4K
$110.7
93.2¢ → 98.2¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 89¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$296.15 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 97.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$19.39 | 54% 394-334 (728) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.1K | -$177.58 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
TI timetowanderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $87 | $60 | -$27 | 40% 396-590 (986) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $10.21 | $9.96 | -$0.26 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
Invested
$2,854.09
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$296.15
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$2,072.92
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$19.39
Record
54%
394-334 (728)
Invested
$2,494.66
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$177.58
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$87
Value
$60
PnL
-$27
Record
40%
396-590 (986)
Invested
$10.21
Value
$9.96
PnL
-$0.26
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.