Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 31?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$11.9K
$249.07
96.9¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $8.5K | $8.6K | +$151.82 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$54.34 | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $587.24 | $592.32 | +$5.08 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 89¢ | $364.69 | $402.51 | +$37.82 | 54% 390-332 (722) |
GO gobblewobbleARB<$100 | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $210.3 | $356.54 | -$105.83 | 59% 862-600 (1462) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $133.15 | $269.62 | -$115.42 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86.9¢ | $77.16 | $86.92 | +$9.59 |
Invested
$8,481.57
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$151.82
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$1,814.6
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$54.34
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Invested
$587.24
Value
$592.32
PnL
+$5.08
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$364.69
Value
$402.51
PnL
+$37.82
Record
54%
390-332 (722)
Invested
$210.3
Value
$356.54
PnL
-$105.83
Record
59%
862-600 (1462)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.