Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 30?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $57K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$57.3K
$7.5K
85.1¢ → 99.2¢
+17% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 84.3¢ | $38.9K | $45.7K | +$6.8K | 54% 389-331 (720) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $3.7K | $4.2K | +$506.56 | 65% 2390-1277 (3667) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 92¢ | $3.5K | $3.7K | +$263.88 | 59% 1045-714 (1759) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$357.52 | 34% 23-44 (67) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 90.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$70.5 | 59% 862-600 (1462) |
 Facaie | Noavg 98.7¢ | $606.99 | $607 | +$0.01 | 92% 1240-104 (1344) |
EN En11006CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $500 | $52.5 | -$447.5 | 62% 29-18 (47) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $319.26 | $13.72 | -$41.48 | 59% 2188-1539 (3727) |
Invested
$38,915.34
Value
$45.7K
PnL
+$6.8K
Record
54%
389-331 (720)
Invested
$3,734.65
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$506.56
Record
65%
2390-1277 (3667)
Invested
$3,452.22
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$263.88
Record
59%
1045-714 (1759)
Invested
$1,479.33
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$357.52
Record
34%
23-44 (67)
Invested
$1,106.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$70.5
Record
59%
862-600 (1462)
FacaieInvested
$606.99
Value
$607
PnL
+$0.01
Record
92%
1240-104 (1344)
Invested
$500
Value
$52.5
PnL
-$447.5
Record
62%
29-18 (47)
Invested
$319.26
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$41.48
Record
59%
2188-1539 (3727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.