Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $801 held · ends Nov 1

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$801.47

Combined PnL

$27.13

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 89¢

+18% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$543.57

Total Shares663

Combined PnL+$44.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.9

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$16.92

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 74.2¢	$424.89	$469.85	+$44.95	65% 2367-1271 (3638)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$278.75	$250	-$28.75	60% 1038-705 (1743)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$212.5	$200	-$12.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.5¢	$66.25	$50	-$16.25
TO Tokor<$100	Noavg 83¢	$74.63	$73.73	-$0.9	63% 758-438 (1196)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$23.93	$7.14	-$16.78	59% 860-598 (1458)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$0.89	$0.76	-$0.14	54% 386-329 (715)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$424.89

Value

$469.85

PnL

+$44.95

Record

65%

2367-1271 (3638)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100

Invested

$278.75

Value

$250

PnL

-$28.75

Record

60%

1038-705 (1743)

Both legs:

No$212.585¢-$12.5

Yes$66.2526.5¢-$16.25

Tokor<$100

Invested

$74.63

Value

$73.73

PnL

-$0.9

Record

63%

758-438 (1196)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.93

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$16.78

Record

59%

860-598 (1458)

kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.