Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 99¢ · $688 held · ends Nov 7

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$688.41

Combined PnL

-$93.65

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 98.5¢

+47% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$352.63

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$66.99

Up4 traders

Total Value$75.51

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$26.65

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$183.3	$260.27	+$76.97	51% 10700-10150 (20850)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$75.94	$149.47	+$73.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$107.36	$110.8	+$3.44
pspspsps5	Downavg 86.8¢	$207.23	$138.24	-$68.99	45% 40271-48253 (88524)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$64.58	$58.26	-$6.32	56% 77586-59890 (137476)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$56.66	$46	-$10.66	58% 39891-28840 (68731)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$36.12	$43.79	+$7.66	48% 6777-7423 (14200)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$28.34	$27.11	-$1.23	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 91.2¢	$22.8	$24.13	+$1.32	55% 51918-43034 (94952)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$21.72	$20.75	-$0.97	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$29.48	$15.97	-$13.51	51% 12277-11765 (24042)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$14.68	$14.47	-$0.22	52% 12400-11447 (23847)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$11.38	$14.29	+$2.92	63% 42565-25291 (67856)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 39.1¢	$7.83	$7.9	+$0.07	56% 60702-47212 (107914)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$8.67	$7.57	-$1.1	49% 81148-84583 (165731)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 36.9¢	$13.2	$5.98	-$1.39	65% 130517-70309 (200826)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$4.94	$3.69	-$1.25	65% 114739-61779 (176518)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$183.3

Value

$260.27

PnL

+$76.97

Record

51%

10700-10150 (20850)

Both legs:

Down$75.9432.3¢+$73.53

Up$107.3635.4¢+$3.44

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$207.23

Value

$138.24

PnL

-$68.99

Record

45%

40271-48253 (88524)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$64.58

Value

$58.26

PnL

-$6.32

Record

56%

77586-59890 (137476)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$56.66

Value

$46

PnL

-$10.66

Record

58%

39891-28840 (68731)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$36.12

Value

$43.79

PnL

+$7.66

Record

48%

6777-7423 (14200)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$28.34

Value

$27.11

PnL

-$1.23

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$22.8

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$1.32

Record

55%

51918-43034 (94952)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$21.72

Value

$20.75

PnL

-$0.97

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$13.51

Record

51%

12277-11765 (24042)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$14.68

Value

$14.47

PnL

-$0.22

Record

52%

12400-11447 (23847)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$11.38

Value

$14.29

PnL

+$2.92

Record

63%

42565-25291 (67856)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

60702-47212 (107914)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$8.67

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$1.1

Record

49%

81148-84583 (165731)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$1.39

Record

65%

130517-70309 (200826)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.94

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$1.25

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.