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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Up 33%

Total Value

$606.93

Combined PnL

-$194.49

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 16 top traders (31%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$606.93

Total Shares607

Combined PnL+$145.03

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$339.52

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Downavg 77.8¢	$139.4	$169.74	+$30.34	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 56¢	$144.73	$160.45	+$15.72	51% 10412-9893 (20305)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 44.9¢	$47.28	$101.85	+$54.57	49% 80875-84321 (165196)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$81.25	$86.9	+$5.65	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 55.3¢	$173.24	—	-$173.24	56% 77327-59680 (137007)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 47.3¢	$107.41	—	-$107.41	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 70.9¢	$24.8	$35	+$10.2	55% 51597-42791 (94388)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$21.73	—	-$21.73	58% 63200-46432 (109632)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 27.3¢	$5.82	$10	+$4.44	65% 130132-70051 (200183)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 45¢	$5.48	$10	+$4.52	63% 60809-35275 (96084)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$8.05	$18	+$9.95	63% 42374-25068 (67442)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$5.27	$10	+$4.73	52% 12286-11316 (23602)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$2.08	$5	+$2.92	61% 98514-62493 (161007)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 72¢	$36	—	-$36	61% 46015-29175 (75190)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$1.14	—	-$1.14	66% 130543-67485 (198028)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$198.35	—	+$2	89% 29171-3554 (32725)

Invested

$139.4

Value

$169.74

PnL

+$30.34

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

Invested

$144.73

Value

$160.45

PnL

+$15.72

Record

51%

10412-9893 (20305)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$47.28

Value

$101.85

PnL

+$54.57

Record

49%

80875-84321 (165196)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$81.25

Value

$86.9

PnL

+$5.65

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$173.24

Value

—

PnL

-$173.24

Record

56%

77327-59680 (137007)

Invested

$107.41

Value

—

PnL

-$107.41

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$24.8

Value

$35

PnL

+$10.2

Record

55%

51597-42791 (94388)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$21.73

Value

—

PnL

-$21.73

Record

58%

63200-46432 (109632)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.44

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$5.48

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.52

Record

63%

60809-35275 (96084)

Invested

$8.05

Value

$18

PnL

+$9.95

Record

63%

42374-25068 (67442)

Invested

$5.27

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.73

Record

52%

12286-11316 (23602)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.08

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.92

Record

61%

98514-62493 (161007)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

—

PnL

-$36

Record

61%

46015-29175 (75190)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

—

PnL

-$1.14

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

Invested

$198.35

Value

—

PnL

+$2

Record

89%

29171-3554 (32725)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 16 top traders (31%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x58611c43...18c6c1

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793992200

Traders in this Market

pspspsps5

Down — $169.74

ply-pm2

Down — $160.45

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $101.85

blue.birds

Down — $86.9

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $35

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $10

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