Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 72%
3 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$23.09
Smart Money Signal
13 of 18 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $362.78 | $481.89 | +$119.11 | 56% 77327-59680 (137007) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.7¢ | $220.14 | — | -$220.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.6¢ | $142.64 | $481.89 | +$339.25 | |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $294.23 | $166.19 | -$128.04 | 45% 40028-47949 (87977) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.4¢ | $113.59 | $166.19 | +$52.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 83.9¢ | $180.63 | — | -$180.63 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.3¢ | $165.46 | $170.05 | +$4.59 | 89% 29171-3554 (32725) |
AL almach | Downavg 74¢ | $111 | $150 | +$39 | 55% 50153-41761 (91914) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 30.8¢ | $114.14 | — | -$114.14 | 51% 10412-9893 (20305) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74¢ | $111 | $150 | +$39 | 55% 51580-41990 (93570) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Upavg 80.8¢ | $142.29 | $100.09 | -$42.21 | 49% 80875-84321 (165196) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62¢ | $62.07 | $100.09 | +$38.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 80.8¢ | $80.22 | — | -$80.22 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $68.72 | $88.88 | +$20.16 | 51% 11991-11459 (23450) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 63.1¢ | $73.75 | $62.5 | -$11.25 | 47% 6449-7132 (13581) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $21.82 | $32 | +$10.18 | 55% 51597-42791 (94388) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $23.71 | $26.05 | +$2.34 | 67% 102458-50758 (153216) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $23.25 | — | -$23.25 | 63% 60809-35275 (96084) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $24.86 | $20 | -$4.86 | 58% 63200-46432 (109632) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $16.1 | $21.75 | +$5.66 | 55% 52204-42636 (94840) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.1¢ | $5.66 | — | -$5.66 | 61% 98514-62493 (161007) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 38.6¢ | $15.45 | $40 | +$24.55 | 61% 46015-29175 (75190) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $21.57 | $12 | -$5.86 | 65% 130132-70051 (200183) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $5.14 | $5.14 | -$0 | 66% 130543-67485 (198028) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $5.1 | $7.04 | +$1.94 | 65% 114511-61547 (176058) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 74% 105016-37056 (142072) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.7¢ | $4.79 | — | -$4.79 | 63% 42374-25068 (67442) |
Invested
$362.78
Value
$481.89
PnL
+$119.11
Record
56%
77327-59680 (137007)
Both legs:
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$294.23
Value
$166.19
PnL
-$128.04
Record
45%
40028-47949 (87977)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.46
Value
$170.05
PnL
+$4.59
Record
89%
29171-3554 (32725)
Invested
$111
Value
$150
PnL
+$39
Record
55%
50153-41761 (91914)
Invested
$114.14
Value
—
PnL
-$114.14
Record
51%
10412-9893 (20305)
Invested
$111
Value
$150
PnL
+$39
Record
55%
51580-41990 (93570)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$142.29
Value
$100.09
PnL
-$42.21
Record
49%
80875-84321 (165196)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.72
Value
$88.88
PnL
+$20.16
Record
51%
11991-11459 (23450)
Invested
$73.75
Value
$62.5
PnL
-$11.25
Record
47%
6449-7132 (13581)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$21.82
Value
$32
PnL
+$10.18
Record
55%
51597-42791 (94388)
Invested
$23.71
Value
$26.05
PnL
+$2.34
Record
67%
102458-50758 (153216)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$23.25
Value
—
PnL
-$23.25
Record
63%
60809-35275 (96084)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$20
PnL
-$4.86
Record
58%
63200-46432 (109632)
Invested
$16.1
Value
$21.75
PnL
+$5.66
Record
55%
52204-42636 (94840)
Invested
$5.66
Value
—
PnL
-$5.66
Record
61%
98514-62493 (161007)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$15.45
Value
$40
PnL
+$24.55
Record
61%
46015-29175 (75190)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$12
PnL
-$5.86
Record
65%
130132-70051 (200183)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0
Record
66%
130543-67485 (198028)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$7.04
PnL
+$1.94
Record
65%
114511-61547 (176058)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
74%
105016-37056 (142072)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.79
Value
—
PnL
-$4.79
Record
63%
42374-25068 (67442)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $170.05
almach
Down — $150
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $150
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $88.88
asdcaxz
Down — $62.5
MayorMamdani
Down — $32