Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 93%
4 arb excluded
$910.04
$40.81
Smart Money Signal
13 of 15 top traders (87%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $155.62 | $175.84 | +$20.22 | 52% 8720-8176 (16896) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.7¢ | $90.94 | $175.84 | +$84.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.4¢ | $64.68 | — | -$64.68 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $154 | $157.67 | +$3.67 | 55% 18785-15358 (34143) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 46.8¢ | $226.75 | $60 | -$166.75 | 57% 72361-55060 (127421) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.8¢ | $182.95 | — | -$182.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $60 | +$16.2 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $105.06 | $106.12 | +$1.06 | 93% 24712-1827 (26539) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 77.3¢ | $101.42 | $105 | +$3.58 | 47% 1881-2131 (4012) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $63.68 | $61.87 | +$1.39 | 64% 25690-14265 (39955) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $39 | $61.87 | +$22.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.3¢ | $20.21 | — | -$21.48 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $60.09 | $45.07 | -$15.02 | 67% 100201-48634 (148835) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.4¢ | $26.07 | — | -$26.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.5¢ | $34.02 | $45.07 | +$11.04 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $53.5 | $50 | -$3.5 | 53% 4711-4105 (8816) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $19.57 | $24.59 | +$5.02 | 61% 96362-60751 (157113) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $17.5 | $35 | +$17.5 | 53% 8788-7802 (16590) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $18.56 | $18.94 | +$0.38 | 66% 127563-65613 (193176) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $16.79 | $21.29 | +$4.5 | 54% 46462-38844 (85306) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 56% 58856-45465 (104321) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $12 | $20.34 | +$8.34 | 65% 126838-67771 (194609) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $8.72 | $12.84 | +$4.12 | 52% 91694-86058 (177752) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.15 | $5 | -$0.15 | 56% 8529-6629 (15158) |
FA FatSlag<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.75 | $5.29 | +$2.54 | 49% 9448-9942 (19390) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.44 | $5.19 | +$2.75 | 58% 38706-27758 (66464) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20470-19540 (40010) |
Invested
$155.62
Value
$175.84
PnL
+$20.22
Record
52%
8720-8176 (16896)
Both legs:
Invested
$154
Value
$157.67
PnL
+$3.67
Record
55%
18785-15358 (34143)
Invested
$226.75
Value
$60
PnL
-$166.75
Record
57%
72361-55060 (127421)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.06
Value
$106.12
PnL
+$1.06
Record
93%
24712-1827 (26539)
Invested
$101.42
Value
$105
PnL
+$3.58
Record
47%
1881-2131 (4012)
Invested
$63.68
Value
$61.87
PnL
+$1.39
Record
64%
25690-14265 (39955)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.09
Value
$45.07
PnL
-$15.02
Record
67%
100201-48634 (148835)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$3.5
Record
53%
4711-4105 (8816)
Invested
$19.57
Value
$24.59
PnL
+$5.02
Record
61%
96362-60751 (157113)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$35
PnL
+$17.5
Record
53%
8788-7802 (16590)
Invested
$18.56
Value
$18.94
PnL
+$0.38
Record
66%
127563-65613 (193176)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.79
Value
$21.29
PnL
+$4.5
Record
54%
46462-38844 (85306)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
56%
58856-45465 (104321)
Invested
$12
Value
$20.34
PnL
+$8.34
Record
65%
126838-67771 (194609)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$12.84
PnL
+$4.12
Record
52%
91694-86058 (177752)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
56%
8529-6629 (15158)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$2.54
Record
49%
9448-9942 (19390)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$2.75
Record
58%
38706-27758 (66464)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20470-19540 (40010)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $157.67
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $106.12
asdcaxz
Down — $105
aaa221
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $50
asidjasiodja
Down — $24.59
PBot-5
Down — $35