Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 94¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 7

Up7¢Down93¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$161.44

Combined PnL

$3.38

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 93.5¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up7%

Down94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$153.19

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$23.38

Up1 trader

Total Value$7.5

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$20

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$55.79	$80.75	+$24.96	52% 12386-11438 (23824)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$46.62	$38.08	-$2.54	58% 3206-2304 (5510)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$27.4	$28.5	+$1.1	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$27.5	$7.5	-$20	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 86.8¢	$6	$5.87	-$0.14	56% 8907-6974 (15881)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$55.79

Value

$80.75

PnL

+$24.96

Record

52%

12386-11438 (23824)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$46.62

Value

$38.08

PnL

-$2.54

Record

58%

3206-2304 (5510)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$27.4

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$1.1

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$27.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$5.87

PnL

-$0.14

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.