Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $214 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$213.95

Combined PnL

-$4.05

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$103.34

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$6.86

Down2 traders

Total Value$61.37

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$2.81

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$53.12	$51.98	-$1.14	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$53.51	$48.81	-$4.69	56% 8907-6974 (15881)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$27.1	$27	-$0.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$26.41	$21.81	-$4.6
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 55¢	$45.9	$45.35	-$0.55	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$40.58	$39.74	-$0.85	52% 12386-11438 (23824)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 79¢	$12.66	$16.02	+$3.36	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 66¢	$16.5	$11.63	-$4.88	58% 63423-46617 (110040)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$53.12

Value

$51.98

PnL

-$1.14

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.51

Value

$48.81

PnL

-$4.69

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

Both legs:

Down$27.153.7¢-$0.1

Up$26.4156.3¢-$4.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$45.9

Value

$45.35

PnL

-$0.55

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$40.58

Value

$39.74

PnL

-$0.85

Record

52%

12386-11438 (23824)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$12.66

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$3.36

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$4.88

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.