Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 93¢ · $77 held · ends Nov 7

Up7¢Down93¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

Total Value

$77.37

Combined PnL

-$5.25

Research grade

NeutralDown at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up7%

Down93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$59.8

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$7.12

Up1 trader

Total Value$17.57

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$1.88

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.1	+$0.7	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 27.4¢	$15.69	$17.57	+$1.88	56% 8907-6974 (15881)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81¢	$21.2	$16.75	-$4.45	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$18.5	$13.5	-$5	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 59¢	$6.19	$7.08	+$0.89	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$2.64	$3.38	+$0.74	58% 63423-46617 (110040)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$15.69

Value

$17.57

PnL

+$1.88

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$21.2

Value

$16.75

PnL

-$4.45

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$18.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$6.19

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.89

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.74

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.4%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.