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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 50%

Total Value

$278.04

Combined PnL

-$350.71

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$278.04

Total Shares278

Combined PnL+$62.2

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$412.92

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 54.2¢	$112.16	$111.04	-$1.11	51% 10467-9935 (20402)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 61.6¢	$249.75	—	-$249.75	59% 2978-2074 (5052)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$53.76	—	-$53.76	63% 60872-35320 (96192)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$61	—	-$61	56% 8747-6830 (15577)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 52.7¢	$52.75	$100	+$47.25	52% 12296-11333 (23629)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$35.73	$37	+$1.27	67% 102499-50810 (153309)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$41.7	—	-$41.7	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$9.99	+$5.35	49% 10571-11222 (21793)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$10.55	$20	+$9.45	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 33.5¢	$6.7	—	-$6.7	63% 42391-25095 (67486)

Invested

$112.16

Value

$111.04

PnL

-$1.11

Record

51%

10467-9935 (20402)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$249.75

Value

—

PnL

-$249.75

Record

59%

2978-2074 (5052)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$53.76

Value

—

PnL

-$53.76

Record

63%

60872-35320 (96192)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$61

Value

—

PnL

-$61

Record

56%

8747-6830 (15577)

Invested

$52.75

Value

$100

PnL

+$47.25

Record

52%

12296-11333 (23629)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$35.73

Value

$37

PnL

+$1.27

Record

67%

102499-50810 (153309)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$41.7

Value

—

PnL

-$41.7

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$5.35

Record

49%

10571-11222 (21793)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.45

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

—

PnL

-$6.7

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcd752eb3...0b68c0

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793995200

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $111.04

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

PBot-5

Down — $100

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $37

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $9.99

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $20

ohioism

Up — $0

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