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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 55%

Total Value

$306.7

Combined PnL

-$242

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$306.7

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$110.68

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares942

Combined PnL-$352.68

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.6¢	$147.8	$169.71	+$21.92	67% 102458-50758 (153216)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$60.82	$62.99	+$65.15	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$57.2	$60	+$2.8	51% 10412-9893 (20305)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 34.2¢	$240.24	—	-$240.24	56% 77327-59680 (137007)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 35.2¢	$33.06	—	-$33.06	59% 2969-2065 (5034)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$33.23	—	-$33.23	56% 60462-47011 (107473)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 70¢	$7	$10	+$3	49% 10541-11187 (21728)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$27.57	$4	+$15.03	63% 60809-35275 (96084)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$10.2	—	-$10.2	63% 42374-25068 (67442)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	65% 114511-61547 (176058)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$35.9	—	-$35.9	58% 63200-46432 (109632)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.7¢	$116.46	—	+$2.78	89% 29171-3554 (32725)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$147.8

Value

$169.71

PnL

+$21.92

Record

67%

102458-50758 (153216)

Invested

$60.82

Value

$62.99

PnL

+$65.15

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

Invested

$57.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$2.8

Record

51%

10412-9893 (20305)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$240.24

Value

—

PnL

-$240.24

Record

56%

77327-59680 (137007)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$33.06

Value

—

PnL

-$33.06

Record

59%

2969-2065 (5034)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$33.23

Value

—

PnL

-$33.23

Record

56%

60462-47011 (107473)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$7

Value

$10

PnL

+$3

Record

49%

10541-11187 (21728)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$27.57

Value

$4

PnL

+$15.03

Record

63%

60809-35275 (96084)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$10.2

Record

63%

42374-25068 (67442)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

114511-61547 (176058)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$35.9

Value

—

PnL

-$35.9

Record

58%

63200-46432 (109632)

Invested

$116.46

Value

—

PnL

+$2.78

Record

89%

29171-3554 (32725)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfec7b1e1...7f7e22

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793991600

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $169.71

13897651

Down — $62.99

ply-pm2

Down — $60

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $10

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $4

ohioism

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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