Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (68%) · Over at 100¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over13 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares26,634

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares8,454

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 68%Under — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 72.3¢	$9.7K	$12.2K	+$2.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$60.74	80% 5611-1432 (7043)
RN1	Overavg 68.5¢	$3.4K	$4.3K	+$856.41	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 26.1¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$126	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$949.79	$1.7K	+$742.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.1¢	$1.7K	$795.93	-$868.14
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 86¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.78	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$1.4K	$932.21	-$41.19	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Underavg 76¢	$1.2K	$661.47	-$220.49	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 24¢	$822.67	$353.75	+$156.31	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI Limousin	Overavg 23.9¢	$553.9	$240.95	+$108.26	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
VE Venusian	Overavg 24¢	$277.13	$120.55	+$54.04	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 66.7¢	$87.35	$113.3	+$25.95	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 69.1¢	$100.55	$54	+$8.98	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
tradecraft	Overavg 23.8¢	$117.86	$53.06	+$20.01	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 81¢	$34.83	$42.98	+$8.15	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 93.5¢	$28.81	$30.78	+$1.97	53% 2209-1983 (4192)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 76.4¢	$37.73	$21.32	-$7.51	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 76¢	$5.32	$3.96	-$1.37	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 14¢	$846.56	$3.02	-$843.54	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 78¢	$2.85	$2.93	+$0.08	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 21¢	$5	$2.15	+$1.1	52% 1527-1394 (2921)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$9,734.8

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$6,123.82

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$60.74

Record

80%

5611-1432 (7043)

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,439.97

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$856.41

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,613.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$126

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Over$949.7949.1¢+$742.14

Under$1,664.0726.1¢-$868.14

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,338.15

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.78

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,377.16

Value

$932.21

PnL

-$41.19

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

darkumbreon88CTR

Under

Invested

$1,160.48

Value

$661.47

PnL

-$220.49

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$822.67

Value

$353.75

PnL

+$156.31

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$553.9

Value

$240.95

PnL

+$108.26

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$277.13

Value

$120.55

PnL

+$54.04

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$87.35

Value

$113.3

PnL

+$25.95

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$100.55

Value

$54

PnL

+$8.98

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

tradecraft

Over

Invested

$117.86

Value

$53.06

PnL

+$20.01

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$34.83

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$8.15

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$28.81

Value

$30.78

PnL

+$1.97

Record

53%

2209-1983 (4192)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.73

Value

$21.32

PnL

-$7.51

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.32

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$1.37

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$846.56

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$843.54

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$1.1

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.