Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Aston Villa FC (67%) · Aston Villa FC at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Manchester United FC<1¢Aston Villa FC>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aston Villa FC

Consensus Traders

Aston Villa FC 67%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 99.6¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAston Villa FC at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aston Villa FC

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Manchester United FC0%

Aston Villa FC100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aston Villa FC8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,404

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Manchester United FC4 traders

Total Value$119.74

Total Shares7,780

Combined PnL-$386.52

Aston Villa FC — 67%Manchester United FC — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Aston Villa FCavg 95.1¢	$6.2K	$4.8K	$-1.3K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Aston Villa FCavg 93.4¢	$497.5	$321.06	-$176.43	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
WA WagerWizard	Aston Villa FCavg 94.5¢	$128.79	$122.35	+$0.67	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Manchester United FCavg 7.5¢	$276.76	$90.14	-$186.62	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrio<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 89¢	$77.69	$73.81	+$4.66	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 87¢	$34	$32.13	+$2.55	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 96.2¢	$24.04	$23.41	-$0.63	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
GH ghorrock<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 89¢	$28.84	$21.67	+$1.37	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
RN1CTR	Manchester United FCavg 6.1¢	$181.96	$14.94	-$167.02	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
PA Pan9X<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 91.1¢	$17.06	$10.2	-$0.28	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 1.6¢	$30.86	$7.72	-$23.15	56% 1205-933 (2138)
38 38791873984189CTR	Manchester United FCavg 12¢	$330	$6.95	-$9.73	48% 70219-75923 (146142)

Flaznorp

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$6,172.29

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$497.5

Value

$321.06

PnL

-$176.43

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

WagerWizard

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$128.79

Value

$122.35

PnL

+$0.67

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

SnakeBallCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$276.76

Value

$90.14

PnL

-$186.62

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrio<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$77.69

Value

$73.81

PnL

+$4.66

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

lonmi2511<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$34

Value

$32.13

PnL

+$2.55

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$24.04

Value

$23.41

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

ghorrock<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$28.84

Value

$21.67

PnL

+$1.37

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

RN1CTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$181.96

Value

$14.94

PnL

-$167.02

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Pan9X<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$17.06

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$30.86

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$23.15

Record

56%

1205-933 (2138)

38791873984189CTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$330

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$9.73

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Research grade

NeutralAston Villa FC at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Aston Villa FC

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aston Villa FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.