Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$9.19

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares9,956

Combined PnL+$215.26

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.69

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$206.08

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$1.76	98% 18444-384 (18828)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 95.6¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	+$84.82	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 97.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$30.1	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
NM NM-P	Noavg 95.9¢	$952.71	$976.1	+$23.39	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Noavg 95.9¢	$925.27	$947.87	+$22.6	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 95.7¢	$829.96	$848.11	+$37.71	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.2¢	$132.66	$137.83	+$5.17	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 95.8¢	$125.4	$130.86	+$5.46	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.7¢	$129.2	$129.26	+$0.07	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
alpheclabs2<$100	Noavg 97¢	$69.23	$71.33	+$2.11	47% 1366-1547 (2913)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$48.87	$50.98	+$2.32	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$19.22	$18.97	-$0.25	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.45	$1.65	+$0.21	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.67	$0.8	+$0.13	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$205.32	$0.22	-$205.1	28% 1154-3035 (4189)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.33	$0.02	-$1.31	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

pvc975

Invested

$3,525.77

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.76

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,213.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$84.82

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,155.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30.1

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

NM-P

Invested

$952.71

Value

$976.1

PnL

+$23.39

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Invested

$925.27

Value

$947.87

PnL

+$22.6

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

38791873984189

Invested

$829.96

Value

$848.11

PnL

+$37.71

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$132.66

Value

$137.83

PnL

+$5.17

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$125.4

Value

$130.86

PnL

+$5.46

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

MadridTime

Invested

$129.2

Value

$129.26

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

alpheclabs2<$100

Invested

$69.23

Value

$71.33

PnL

+$2.11

Record

47%

1366-1547 (2913)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$48.87

Value

$50.98

PnL

+$2.32

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$19.22

Value

$18.97

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.21

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.32

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$205.1

Record

28%

1154-3035 (4189)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.31

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.