Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 82¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 7

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 81.5¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares26,670

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Under9 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares32,986

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 93¢	$23.4K	$15.8K	$-7.7K	89% 90-11 (101)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 7.3¢	$1.1K	$5.5K	+$4.4K	53% 6331-5612 (11943)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 91.7¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$317.75	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
└ Over leg	Overavg 91.7¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$160.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 7.7¢	$397.24	$875.61	+$478.37
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 92¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$374.82	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
└ Over leg	Overavg 92¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$123.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 7¢	$367.17	$865.46	+$498.3
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 7.5¢	$650.89	$1.3K	+$644.02	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 91.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.64	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 7.4¢	$669.45	$1.1K	+$464.48	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
nigiri99	Overavg 93¢	$151.59	$150.78	-$0.81	46% 8769-10462 (19231)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 92.2¢	$43.32	$40.66	-$2.67	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 7.3¢	$17.85	$36.56	+$18.7	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 7.3¢	$5.86	$30	+$24.14	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 7.3¢	$14.14	$27.06	+$12.92	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 93¢	$20.01	$13.45	-$6.56	35% 19620-37183 (56803)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$2.58	$4.98	+$2.4	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$2.41	$2.59	+$0.17	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 6.8¢	$2.22	$0.41	+$0.09	58% 21687-15792 (37479)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$23,447.25

Value

$15.8K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

89%

90-11 (101)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$1,076

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

53%

6331-5612 (11943)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,084.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$317.75

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

Both legs:

Over$1,687.2691.7¢-$160.62

Under$397.247.7¢+$478.37

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,703.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$374.82

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

Both legs:

Over$1,336.592¢-$123.48

Under$367.177¢+$498.3

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$650.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$644.02

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,195.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.64

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$669.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$464.48

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$151.59

Value

$150.78

PnL

-$0.81

Record

46%

8769-10462 (19231)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$43.32

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$2.67

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.85

Value

$36.56

PnL

+$18.7

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.86

Value

$30

PnL

+$24.14

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.14

Value

$27.06

PnL

+$12.92

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$20.01

Value

$13.45

PnL

-$6.56

Record

35%

19620-37183 (56803)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.22

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.