Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 14 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ipswich Town FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 24¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 8

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

35.7¢ → 23.5¢

-34% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares22,198

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Under14 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares39,831

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Overavg 59¢	$9.5K	$12.6K	+$3.1K	52% 234-219 (453)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$7.1K	$4.1K	$-3.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LooksMaxing101	Overavg 58.2¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$86.28	51% 888-849 (1737)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 40¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$915	48% 405-446 (851)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 41¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	-$835.92	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 22.7¢	$1.0K	$979.58	-$55.95	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 33.5¢	$1.5K	$963.99	-$503.16	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
RN1	Overavg 79¢	$708.44	$703.96	-$4.48	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$985.17	$247.3	-$277.53	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.8¢	$313.63	$165.22	-$276.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 79¢	$83.13	$82.08	-$1.05
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 44¢	$234.74	$232.07	-$2.67	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 42¢	$236.86	$228.58	-$8.28	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 21¢	$192.25	$201.61	+$9.36	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Overavg 50¢	$400	$200	-$0	— 1-0 (1)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$72.15	$38.71	-$33.44	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$34.38	$18.09	-$16.29	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20.6¢	$5.45	$5.83	+$0.38	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$5.62	$5.62	+$0	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 33.5¢	$11.39	$5.06	-$1.71	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$0.8	$1.08	+$0.27	47% 9585-10702 (20287)

DaBossHogg

Over

Invested

$9,500

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

52%

234-219 (453)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$7,074.64

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LooksMaxing101

Over

Invested

$2,911.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$86.28

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,033.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$915

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,984.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$835.92

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,035.53

Value

$979.58

PnL

-$55.95

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,467.15

Value

$963.99

PnL

-$503.16

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

RN1

Over

Invested

$708.44

Value

$703.96

PnL

-$4.48

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$985.17

Value

$247.3

PnL

-$277.53

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$313.6341.8¢-$276.47

Over$83.1379¢-$1.05

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$234.74

Value

$232.07

PnL

-$2.67

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$236.86

Value

$228.58

PnL

-$8.28

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$192.25

Value

$201.61

PnL

+$9.36

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.15

Value

$38.71

PnL

-$33.44

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.38

Value

$18.09

PnL

-$16.29

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.39

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$1.71

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.8

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.