Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-21?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 50¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 21

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$104.99

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 49.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares17,607

Combined PnL-$153.83

No7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares15,864

Combined PnL+$258.82

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8ba27b7c9de2b6367f986bff5f9c8049204c1650CTR	Yesavg 51.3¢	$8.5K	$8.2K	-$296.69	— 2-5 (7)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 48.1¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$166.1	49% 400-411 (811)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$17.45	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 49.2¢	$702.02	$715.17	+$18.06	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 48¢	$500	$526.04	+$26.04	57% 63-48 (111)
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 48¢	$500	$526.04	+$26.04	25% 69-208 (277)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$238.67	$373.22	+$134.56	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
GU guilttrip	Noavg 49¢	$245	$252.5	+$7.5	49% 32-33 (65)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51.3¢	$149.66	$147.28	-$2.37	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
IS IsraelDJJBCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$100	$106.38	+$6.38	7% 2-26 (28)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$86.25	$84.36	+$1.92	40% 2685-4008 (6693)

0x8ba27b7c9de2b6367f986bff5f9c8049204c1650CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,472.52

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$296.69

Record

—

2-5 (7)

Gaditima

Invested

$3,384.76

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$166.1

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,280.42

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$17.45

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

38791873984189

Invested

$702.02

Value

$715.17

PnL

+$18.06

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$500

Value

$526.04

PnL

+$26.04

Record

57%

63-48 (111)

Notradecopy

Invested

$500

Value

$526.04

PnL

+$26.04

Record

25%

69-208 (277)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$238.67

Value

$373.22

PnL

+$134.56

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

guilttrip

Invested

$245

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

49%

32-33 (65)

Flaznorp

Invested

$149.66

Value

$147.28

PnL

-$2.37

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

IsraelDJJBCTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$106.38

PnL

+$6.38

Record

2-26 (28)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.25

Value

$84.36

PnL

+$1.92

Record

40%

2685-4008 (6693)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.