Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 4.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 51¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 7

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$463.24

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 51¢

-35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,783

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Over9 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares17,662

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 75.3¢	$9.2K	$9.6K	+$387.47	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.9¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.3¢	$6.8K	$4.6K	$-2.2K
BE beautifulobsession	Underavg 77.1¢	$10.1K	$6.7K	$-3.4K	66% 99-51 (150)
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 25.9¢	$2.6K	$4.9K	+$2.3K	35% 349-660 (1009)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 22.5¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$1.0K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 23.4¢	$896.04	$1.1K	+$343.19	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 96.1¢	$558.62	$314.78	-$243.84	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
RN1CTR	Overavg 3.6¢	$22.6	$305	+$282.39	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 23.9¢	$68.67	$140.86	+$72.2	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 23¢	$62.78	$133.75	+$70.97	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$26.64	$59.34	+$32.7	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 91.7¢	$98.73	$55.69	-$27.15	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 23.3¢	$32.06	$46.5	+$22.44	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Underavg 95.8¢	$4.79	$2.55	-$2.24	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$0.8	$1.86	+$1.06	46% 5332-6170 (11502)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,216.84

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$387.47

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Over$2,453.8423.9¢+$2.6K

Under$6,76375.3¢$-2.2K

beautifulobsession

Under

Invested

$10,119.19

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

66%

99-51 (150)

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$2,593.75

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

35%

349-660 (1009)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,357.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$896.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$343.19

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$558.62

Value

$314.78

PnL

-$243.84

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$22.6

Value

$305

PnL

+$282.39

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$68.67

Value

$140.86

PnL

+$72.2

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$62.78

Value

$133.75

PnL

+$70.97

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.64

Value

$59.34

PnL

+$32.7

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$98.73

Value

$55.69

PnL

-$27.15

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.06

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$22.44

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Under

Invested

$4.79

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$2.24

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

hi774cCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.8

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$1.06

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.